Black swans are unknown unknowns.
Finding Leverage in the Predictably Unpredictable
A black swan is an event we never imagined. So we don’t prepare for it.
- Things you know: Known knowns
- Things you know you don’t know: Known unknowns
- Things you don’t know you don’t know: Unknown unknowns
Uncovering Unknown Unknowns
In any negotiation, assume each side is in the possession of at least three black swans.
Conventional questioning and research will not uncover them. Always ask: Why are they communicating what they are communicating right now?
Your opponent may not even know his black swan is one. Don’t assume they are guarding it.
The Three Types of Leverage
Find out what your counterpart wants to gain and what they fear losing. You can then build leverage. Keep in mind that leverage is all in the head. You merely need to convince them you have leverage.
Black swans are leverage multipliers.
If they are talking to you, you have leverage!
Leverage is fluid and sloshes between parties.
Positive Leverage
This comes from your ability to provide or withhold things they want.
Negative Leverage
This comes from the ability to make others suffer. It triggers loss aversion.
But don’t make direct threats, and be careful with subtle ones too. Even if they cave in, there almost always will be negative consequences. Never make them feel they are losing their autonomy. Many people would rather die than sacrifice autonomy. They’ll walk away.
The harder you push, the stronger the resistance.
Normative Leverage
This arises from rules and a moral framework. Use their norms to show they are acting contrary to them.
In any negotiation, how well you listen dictates the outcome much better than how well you speak.
Everyone, even atheists, have a religion. This is their reason for living. It is how they view the world, and their place in it. It will strongly influence their emotions.
Find their religion. It may stem from their life story. Review everything you hear - you’ll often miss it the first time. Use backup listeners whose sole task is to listen for clues.
The Similarity Principle
Utilize the similarity principle. It can be quite effective. Even using an inside phrase can make a connection.
People respond favorably to requests made in a reasonable tone followed with a “because” reason.
It’s Not Crazy, It’s a Clue
Most people avoid the unknown. In negotiations, it takes the form of “They’re crazy!” It’s a way to justify your lack of knowledge (similar to “He’s irrational” or “He’s stubborn”). Their ignorance is a vacuum that must be filled.
A form of “They’re crazy!” shows up in many/most negotiations. Refusing to say it and digging deeper helps us discover Black Swans.
Look up the book Negotiation Genius
Mistake #1: Assuming They Are Well Informed
People operating with incomplete information often appear crazy to those who have the information.
Solution: Find the information they lack and ensure they get it (they may not accept it coming from you, and you may need a 3rd party to supply it).
Mistake #2: Assuming They Are Unconstrained
Sometimes their hands are tied but they really don’t want to reveal it (e.g. due to advice from a lawyer, contractual obligation, lack of authority, etc).
Mistake #3: Misjudging Their Interests
Consider that your assumptions regarding their needs are flawed.
Get Face Time
Don’t try to uncover black swans without talking directly to them. There almost always is information you will not discover without a face to face meeting.
Email is not a good way. The asynchronous nature of it gives them too much time to think. And you don’t get the nonverbal cues.
If the other side doesn’t talk, get them out of their “work place” and take them out to dinner. Promise no business discussions.
Observe Unguarded Moments
Formal negotiation sessions and similar stuctured environments often don’t yield black swans. People are at their most guarded. The few minutes before and after the meeting are the most fruitful.
When It Doesn’t Make Sense, There’s Cents To Be Made
“It sounds like I’m in good hands” is a label too!
Labels are useful in extracting information. Mislabeling can also help.
Building more empathy helps discover Black Swans.
Overcoming Fear and Learning to Get What You Want Out of Life
People in close relationships often avoid making their own interests known and instead compromise across the board to avoid being perceived as greedy or selfish. Never fighting hurts relationships!
Ignore the voice telling you to “just get along”.
Ignore the voice telling you to lash out and yell.
Conflict is good - often for both parties!